Pierre, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS63 KABR 152337
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
637 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West to northwest winds will gust to 45 to 60 mph across central
  and northeastern South Dakota through Friday.

- The probability of low temperatures falling to 36F degrees or
colder Saturday night is 60 to 90 percent in areas along and north
of the US Highway 212 corridor.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area
Sunday through Tuesday. The probably of seeing 0.75 inches of rain
over a 24 hour period, ending at 7 am Tuesday, is 40 to 70 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Strong winds will continue to be the main concern over the next
12-24 hours, with several locations gusting in the 45-60mph range.
Steady rain remains for much of the area, while returning for
portions of far northeastern SD and west central MN over the next
couple of hours. Few changes are currently needed to the ongoing
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

As of 9z, A deep surface low continues of move east over eastern SD.
There is an area of precipitation over central and eastern SD
following behind this low as another boundary moves in from southern
SD heading towards the north. This line is bringing some storms into
northeastern SD and will continue to move north through the morning,
though these storms appear to be loosing steam as they move into
northeastern SD.

Once this initial line of storms moves through, abundant low level
moisture will start to move into eastern SD. A bit of instability
happens over eastern SD after 14z, with models showing some surface
based CAPE around/ slightly above 500 J/kg. Another boundary then
looks to move through eastern SD around/after 14z, which will
provide a source of lift to help showers and storms to develop in
addition to the moisture and instability in the area. There is also
some shear in eastern SD, which will help with the potential
development of supercell. With there being strong mid to low level
CAA over central and eastern SD, the vertical growth of the storms
will be limited. This could lead to the development of low topped
supercells that have the ability to produce severe wind, hail, and
possibility and isolated tornado. The chances for storms decreases
this evening. However, the chance for rain continues through the day
Friday, as precipitation looks to wrap around

As the surface low moves to the east, it will strengthen, with
models showing the low dropping to around 984-982mb. With the low
being so low, a tight pressure gradient has developed around it over
central and eastern SD. This tight pressure gradient will lead to an
increase in winds aloft the could be  pushed to the surface with the
CAA moving in behind the cold front. The strongest winds look to be
west of the Missouri River Thursday, with the potential for these
winds to gust over 55 mph. Areas to the east will have only slightly
weaker winds, with some areas having the potential to gust 45 to 50
mph. Strong winds look to continue through Friday, though they don`t
look to be as strong as the low and its tight pressure gradient move
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The period begins on Friday with an anomalously strong surface low
pressure system near eastern ND or western MN. West-northwesterly
winds will continue impacting the forecast area throughout Friday,
with a 40-75 percent chance gusts exceed 45 mph west of the James
River valley. A wind headline may be need on Friday. High
temperatures on Friday will definitely be cold with readings in the
40s and low 50s. The NBM probability of seeing highs under 50
degrees is 30 to 75 percent, with the highest potential over the
western half of the CWA. These readings will be 15 to 25 degrees
below average for this time of year.

The storm system departs the region by Friday night, leaving behind
cool temperatures and diminishing winds. Low temperatures Saturday
morning may drop into the 30s, with frost possible. Temperatures
remain cool Sunday morning with a large portion of the CWA seeing a
50 to 85 percent chance of lows below 36 degrees. Increasing cloud
cover and rain chances may limit the frost potential over the
southwest CWA, or the Pierre and Murdo area.

Another storms system will cross the Plains into the midwest with
additional showers and thunderstorms expected, mainly Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday. The slow moving nature of the storms
should produce plentiful rainfall. The probably of seeing 0.75
inches over a 24 hour period, ending at 7 am Tuesday, is 40 to 75
percent. With cool temperatures, highs mostly in the 50s and low
60s, along with limited instability, severe weather is not expected
with this storm system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR to near IFR ceilings and strong winds gusting 35-45kt will
continue through the TAF period. Expect VFR ceilings at times
early in the period at ABR and PIR, but MVFR ceilings will return
by 05Z Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for SDZ003-
     015-033-045.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for SDZ004>011-016>023-
     034>037-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...06